Pakistan and India are expanding their domain of hostility from conventional military rivalry to existential crisis that involves natural resources and strategic doctrines. The south Asian region is facing a perilous transformation as reflected in the recent statement of Indian Water Minister CR Patil that, “not a single drop of water will go to Pakistan in the coming years.” Indian hawkishness has shattered the framework of the Indus Waters Treaty (IWT) and it has not become a volatile flashpoint between two rivals.
India’s threat of a total water cutoff after the Pahalgam incident and May conflict is viewed by Pakistan as an act of economic strangulation. Pakistan’s 250 Million population is highly dependent on water as its major sectors such as agriculture and livestock is the backbone of the country. Pakistan’s Foreign Office spokesperson Tahir Andrabi warned India that any attempt by India to block essential water flows will be treated as an act of war under Article 51 of the UN Charter. This shows that water is redline for Pakistan as it would vigorously defend its rights using conventional, legal and diplomatic measures.
Along with the economic and environmental crisis, India is growing its nuclear arsenal as well. Concerns are being raised by the Stockholm International Peace Research Institute (SIPRI) regarding India’s vertical proliferation, advancements in nuclear capable submarines and the long-range intercontinental ballistic missiles. India is not only blackmailing Pakistan with water resources, but it is also threatening regional stability.
Although Pakistan does not want to entangle itself in arms race due to water insecurity or nuclear posturing as it will place region on a knife-edge, yet it is ready to defend itself. The strategic doctrine of Pakistan clearly states that economic strangulation or military threats will act as a potential threshold for a robust national response. This region is already filled with uncertainty and India’s unabated aggression can lead to a dangerous escalation.
International community is already aware of the breakdown in bilateral cooperation between India and Pakistan. Therefore, it should force India to act rationally and abide to the IWT agreement signed in 1960. To ensure the stability of the South Asian region there is an imperative need for India to honor international commitments and seek resolutions that prevent a catastrophic collapse of security between nuclear states.
